WTA Rome May 6th to May 18th

Payton Stearns is undoubtedly a gutsy professional having a great tournament but her last 3 opponents have all had better days and yet still nearly won. Three consecutive final set tie break wins is unusual as is three proven winners underperforming as the winning line approached. Keys, Osaka and Svitolina all played poorly. But this won’t bother Stearns who now has the challenge of coping with the Italian 🇮🇹 fans as she takes on Jasmine Paolini for a place in the final. In the top half DTM likes Coco Gauff’s chances of coming through. It is rare that an aggressive player like Sabalenka goes weeks without a poor day. With the French Open around the corner DTM believes Coco will get an event win this week to add to the build up and intrigue for Paris.

DTM recommends

Coco Gauff to win WTA Rome @ 4/1

The quarter finals has an uneven look to it with all the big names in the top half and some surprises in the bottom half. Aryna Sabalenka is on a 15 match roll and has never lost to Zheng. She also has a strong view on her Chinese opponent so will not be letting up this time. Zheng is capable of winning but for whatever reason has failed to bring her A game when playing the world #1. Gauff plays Andreeva and unlike Madrid DTM expects a closer contest. Neither match in the top half has any value. 3 set outcomes are possible but the real value is taking the learning points for the French Open.

In the other half Diana Shnaider is playing well and could upset Jasmine Paolini. DTM watched the Italian in an ITF event in late 2019 in Longhua, China when she was ranked 97 in the world. Her rise to the top of the game has been impressive but on occasion her tenacity and ability to overcome attacking, powerful shot makers is limited. If Shnaider turns up against she can win. Svitolina is obvpiously playing well. She will have too much experience and solid play for Stearns who is thriving this week but in truth has been the beneficiary of lots of unforced errors by both Keys and Osaka. She won’t get the same number of errors from Svitolina today.

DTM recommends 

D.Shnaider to beat J.Paolini

E.Svitolina to beat P.Stearns 2 sets to 0

The big names played some gruelling tennis over the first weekend in Rome. A few couldn’t cope with their opponents tough tennis. Yet again Iga Swiatek exited an event she was favourite for. Danielle Collins as DTM expected was more than interested in making this a contest. The trouble was Iga didn’t want to know and sailed out in relatively quick fashion. The bottom half is now wide open and includes Jolene Ostapenko who is always more dangerous if she negotiates the early rounds :) Peyton Stearns defeated a wild and error strewn Madison Keys. When will players realise it’s their mistakes that are the decisive factor? If Ostapenko is going to be a contender she should have enough to beat Jasmine Paolini but it’s always a question of consistency and Jelena is not known for that ? Danielle Collins played so well that she should beat Svitolina but again not a given. For the best option of the round D.Shnaider to beat Elise Mertens is more than a possibility. Shnaider has improved significantly since Stuttgart and should win :) 

DTM recommends

D.Shnaider to beat E.Mertens

Many of the big names are out for the first time since Madrid on Friday. This includes the world's #1 Aryna Sabalenka who plays Anastasia Potapova. Marta Kostyuk has a serious clay court test against Daria Kasatkina but is in such tremendous form that this match up is one DTM likes. Kasatkina has been distracted with off court issues recently so maybe today Kostyuk will push on after her impressive display in Madrid and also in round 1 earlier this week. With court condition experience Kostyuk has to be favoured. Ekaterina Alexandrova has to be a good option to beat Raducanu who has limited form this season and has no slow clay court form. Unfortunately some late withdrawals have meant that the Raducanu match has updated and therefore is no longer relevant.  We will just rely on Marta for the interest on Friday:) 

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M.Kostyuk to beat D.Kasatkina

Naomi Osaka has dedicated herself in recent weeks to climbing back up the rankings. She is only a decent win away from believing again. Paula Badosa has been injured again since Miami and could not have found a tougher assignment for her first match back. With Osaka winning last week at a WTA125 event, she has found the winning formula and will be hard to beat. Expect the Japanese star to prevail:) Elsewhere there are a few potential surprises. But DTM likes Hailey Baptiste to defeat Samsonova who has no liking for slow clay courts whilst the American has won a few matches recently on clay. 

DTM recommends

N.Osaka to beat P.Badosa

H.Baptiste to beat L.Samsonova 

Another perfect opening day for DTM as all 3 players won :) Round 1 continues and DTM's eyes were immediately drawn to Yastremska v Potapova. The Ukrainian has a winning H2H record over the Russian and when they last met on clay she won easily. The most recent match also saw Yastremska win on the slow courts in Doha. Given the way Kostyuk beat Potapova last week in Madrid DTM expects a similar result in favour of Ukraine. The other match of interest is Eala against Kostyuk. Marta Kostyuk looked very good in Madrid but when push came to shove her serve once again let her down. Eala is having a great season and her match with Swiatek will have given further confidence despite losing in 3 sets. Her return and fearless hitting may cause Kostyuk some problems. At the prices Eala is a good value option.

DTM recommends

D.Yastremska to beat A.Potapova NAP

A.Eala to beat M.Kostyuk NB

Elena-Gabriela Ruse has played some excellent tennis in recent weeks. She won four matches in Miami and three in Rouen. Siegemund has failed to win consecutive matches for the entire season (with just one exception). DTM expects the Romanian to come out on top. Ajla Tomljanovic will want to beat Australian compatriot Gadecki. Her pedigree is far superior to Gadecki and on clay, she should have too much experience for her younger opponent. Round 1 also starts today and it will be interesting if Petra Kvitova starts to find some winning form after a few matches under her belt. Begu cannot buy a win and is fighting for any kind of confidence. Maybe today sees Kvitova win for the first time since her return:)  

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E.Ruse to beat L.Siegemund

A.Tomljanovic to beat O.Gadecki

P.Kvitova to beat I.Begu

Aryna Sabalenka will be the top seed for a while now given she has a massive lead at the top of the world rankings. Her path to the final looks trickier this time with potential match ups with Kenin and Kasatkina before Gauff or Andreeva? In the bottom half Iga Swiatek has a tasty match up with Danielle Collins to look forward to in round 3. Then Svitolina, Keys and either Paolini or Ostapenko await. However on form Swiatek would fancy the job in Rome but given her struggles you could hardly back her at present :) Given the French Open looms large in every player's mind DTM believes each way outsiders to do well in Rome is the sensible option. 

DTM recommends

J.Ostapenko each way @40/1 (50p ew)

S.Kenin each way @ 350/1 (25p ew)

D.Vekic each way @ 200/1 (25p ew)

Iga Świątek breezed through the draw last year and won without dropping a set. As #1 seed the world was rosy on clay for the Pole this time last year. It is very different a year on. Aryna Sabalenka is contending at every event and quite a few players seemed to have worked out how to beat Iga. Ostapenko heads this list as do a few others. The chances of a Polish victory look unlikely but if Iga doesn't win then will Aryna go back to back? 

The past two years have seen clean ball strikers do well. Elena Rybakina won in 2023 and players like Keys, Ostapenko, Kalinina and Azarenka have all done well here. In the top half DTM puts Vekic, Alexandrova and Kenin in the category of powerful ball strikers that could surprise. Sofia Kenin is difficult to trust or predict, having lost match points last week against Potapova. She did however beat Sabalenka here in 2023 so that match up if it works out will be interesting. DTM believes Aryna Sabalenka will want to be refreshed and ready to go for the French Open. Winning in Rome is not on her radar. Previous exits at Rome indicate that Madrid then Paris are her priorities. She may not be the percentage call at this event. With Iga struggling and Rybakina with no recent form, the chances are the WTA may see another new 1000 winner at this event. DTM suggests Qinwen Zheng in the top half as an alternative or Donna Vekic :) Jelena Ostapenko has to be given another chance to do well in the bottom half. The winner of Keys and Kalinskaya will also be a threat.