WTA Mutua Madrid 2025 April 22nd to May 4th

DTM had already picked Aryna Sabalenka to win in Madrid so the final provides an opportunity to place a cover investment. Coco Gauff has arguably returned to somewhere near her best in Madrid. Her confidence has grown with each win and she will now feel very comfortable with her game. As DTM stated earlier in the week, when Coco is on she is worth sticking with. Aryna Sabalenka over powered both her Ukrainian opponents when the end of the set approached. Her ability to dismiss her opponent's second serve was significant. DTM expects Coco to be a different proposition on serve to Kostyuk and therefore given the rest of her game being ahead of both Ukranians, DTM believes she will beat Sabalenka who will also be feeling tired after numerous tournament finals in recent weeks. In the doubles final Cirstea and Kalinskaya duly won their semi final and DTM would advise sticking with them to enjoy their way to the title :) 

DTM recommends

C.Gauff to beat A.Sabalenka

S.Cirstea and A.Kalinskaya to beat Mertens and Kudermetova in the Doubles final

The final four in Madrid see three of the four top seeds face up alongside last week's Rouen winner, Elina Svitolina. Iga Swiatek v Coco Gauff is going to be intriguing as Gauff is playing well. She will have taken a lot of confidence from her win against Andreeva. With such a poor clay H2H record against Swiatek it will be tough but this is the kind of match that Gauff could target for an upset. DTM expects Coco Gauff to start fast and carry on her momentum from beating Andreeva. The American is definitely a player to follow once she gets hot. It has been a while to return but DTM senses her time is near again:) Sabalenka will play Svitolina who is definitely playing better than most. Given Kostyuk could have won her match with Sabalenka then you have to give Svitolina a shot. Certainly of winning a set. Kostyuk was unlucky in some respects and more than  threatened a shock. DTM believes Svitolina and Gauff both have more than a shot at winning :) 

DTM recommends

C.Gauff to win the 1st set v I.Swiatek

Gauff v Swiatek 3 set match

Svitolina v Sabalenka 3 set match

E.Svitolina to win the 1st set

Elsewhere in the doubles Anna Kalinskaya and Sorana Cirstea have been blazing the doubles and are great value to beat the #3 seeds in Hseih and Ostapenko :) 

The only completed matches on Monday saw Coco Gauff and Mirra Andreeva confirm their quarter final place and therefore set up another match up. Such has been Andreeva's form in recent months that she is seen as the slight favourite. Although she has some good clay form, especially her victory over Sabalenka at the French Open, DTM expects Gauff to put on a show and win this time. Her H2H record is 2:0 and her position as slight underdog will allow her to hit freely and place all the pressure and expectation on Andreeva. Mirra Andreeva looked vulnerable in Stuttgart losing to Alexandrova comfortably. Conditions in Madrid are similar and reasonably fast for a clay court. Based on results so far at this event Gauff has secured better wins. This is a good time to back the American:) She could even win in straight sets with a dominant victory :) Elsewhere Marta Kostyuk will never have a better opportunity to beat the world #1 as Sabalenka is vulnerable on clay and if Kostyuk can play the same as late last night then an unlikely victory is possible? Can the Ukranian finally step up to the next level ? 

DTM recommends

C.Gauff to beat M.Andreeva

C.Gauff to win 2 sets to 0

C.Gauff to win a set 6-3 or better 

With no significant play on Monday due to the power cut across Spain, DTM's write up for Monday rolls over to Tuesday:) The last 16 in Madrid sees a few new faces as well as the usual suspects from the top of the game. Sabalenka and Swiatek are still on course for a repeat of last year's final but there is still a lot of tennis to be played before that:) Elina Svitolina looks likely to cause Sabalenka the most problems in the top half. The bottom half sees a few interesting match ups. Shnaider is playing well this week so it will be interesting to see how far she pushes a vulnerable Swiatek who has yet to win an event of note this season. DTM likes Donna Vekic of all the match ups as she faces Madison Keys who is over rated to secure the win. The last match between these two was only a few months ago on a slow Indian Wells hard court. That surface should have favoured Keys but the slow courts favoured Vekic. Madrid is more of the same and Vekic came so close to beating Keys in straights sets in Indian Wells, so the possibility of a 2 sets to 0 win in Madrid seems more likely. At the generous odds of 12/5 and 5/1 a 2-0 sets win for Vekic has to be the value choice:) Elsewhere DTM expects Marta Kostyuk to beat A.Potapova but not enough to make it his NAP:) 

DTM recommends

D.Vekic to beat M.Keys

M.Kostyuk to beat A.Potapova NB

Sofia Kenin is a great option against A.Potapova. She has a great pedigree on clay having reached the French Open final. She is in good form and only a bizarre end to her match with Pegula in Charleston prevented her from winning a title. Potapova has played well this week but she is not as solid or as consistent as Kenin:) DTM recommends Kenin as his NAP. Elsewhere DTM has always rated Marta Kostyuk since her world #1 days as a junior. She is a much better player than Kudermetova and should win. However Kudermetova does hold a 2-0 H2H record over the Ukranian but DTM believes this will change this week:) 

DTM recommends

S.Kenin to beat A.Potapova NAP

M.Kostyuk to beat V.Kudermetova NB

A lot of the higher ranked players should win their matches on the first weekend in Madrid. Two potential banana skins could be Seavstova against Shnaider and Kalinskaya against Keys? DTM isn't particularly strong on either of these results but of the two Anna Kalinskaya will be confident of a repeat victory against Madison Keys having beaten her in Charleston only a few weeks ago:) DTM advises a 3 set match outcome as Keys seemed comfortable in her win against Bronzetti. If you want to back the Russian to win then its the most likely upset to happen across all the matches scheduled for Saturday:) 

DTM recommends

A.Kalinskaya v M.Keys - 3 set outcome

A.Kalinskkaya to beat M.Keys

DTM is prepared to give Maria Sakkari one more chance to get a decent win against a higher ranked player. These have been very scarce in the past year but Linette is the type of player Sakkari should beat on old form especially on clay:) 

Rebeka Masarova is having a decent run on clay 

and holds a 1-0 H2H record over Putintseva. 

Yulia Putintseva is having a poor season and won't want a tough first match. Unfortunately that is exactly what she will get against Masarova. 

Finally Danilovic has the game and confidence to beat Alexandrova. Ostapenko lost after a long week in Stuttgart and DTM expects Alexandrova will go the same way as well with an early exit in Madrid. 

DTM recommends

M.Sakkari to beat M.Linette

R.Masarova to beat Y.Putintseva

O.Danilovic to beat E.Alexandrova

All 3 in a trixie as well. 

The seeded players take to the court as the tournament really gets going with round 2 matches starting today:) However some of the seeds will not find their opponents very easy to defeat given they have already played and adjusted to the court conditions. Kalinskaya rarely wins on clay and will find Diane Parry a tough opponent. It is possible Anna Kalinskaya will blow her off court in straight sets but if she struggles to get going this is the kind of attritional opponent she can struggle to overcome. Samsonova is another similar type who will find an opponent who is happy to battle it out if the match goes deep. Both Parry and Dolehide look in good form in Madrid so far. They are value to both progress against the high ranked opponents:) Maria Carle is another player who will fancy her chances against Noskova who also doesn't;t like clay but on another surface would overpower her opponent. This is the third such match up in round 2 where DTM suggests the outsider might prevail:)  

DTM recommends

D.Parry to beat A.Kalinskaya

C.Dolehide to beat L.Samsonova

M.Carle to beat L.Noskova

All 3 in a patent 

Yesterday was the perfect start. All three matches recommended by DTM went the right way despite a few close moments. The overall profit on the day was close to 18 points which is quite the gain from one day:) Wednesday sees the remaining first round matches take place following the completion of qualifying yesterday. Sonay Kartal has done really well to climb the rankings and be situated inside the top 70 in the world. But her clay court form is limited and her defeat last week to Gracheva evidenced that she needs more matches on this surface. Cristian is playing better than Gracheva and has good form on clay especially last year. Cristian should confirm her clay court experience by winning:) 

With lucky losers now being updated in the draw DTM was surprised to see Bernarda Pera favourite to beat Jana Fett despite losing to Carle in qualifying? Jana Fett at 13/10 is very generous:) 

A double for the two J’s  :)

DTM recommends

J.Cristian to beat S.Kartal

J.Fett to beat B.Pera

The final day of qualifying takes place alongside some of the first round matches as Madrid gets going on one of its busiest days:) 

The qualifying yesterday highlighted the form of several players DTM is interested in today. Jana Fett is playing well and raised her level last week to take on much higher ranked players in Stuttgart including a victory against Donna Vekic. She looks good value to qualify today:) Yulia Starodubsteva is another player capable on her day of playing tennis at a higher level. After a slow start yesterday she overcame her opponent in good style and DTM expects her to take this confidence into today's match and win again against Jacquemot:) Finally Rebeka Masarova has enough clay court experience to beat Sara Bejlek and secure a hat trick of wins for DTM followers:)

DTM recommends

J.Fett to beat A.Ruzic

R.Masarova to beat S.Bejlek

Y.Starodubtseva to beat E.Jacquemot

All 3 in a trixie as well