WTA finals November 2nd to 9th 2024

 DTM will discuss the validity of the WTA finals in his blog next week which looks closely at the number of unforced errors the tops players are making in their matches. The event in Riyadh proved to be quite a spectacle and returned a worthy winner in Coco Gauff who had been trending the right way in recent weeks. However her last two opponents certainly gifted her matches with their huge number of unforced errors. Aryna Sabalenka made 47 in her semi final loss which interestingly was within one of the number she made in her US Open final defeat in. 2023. Interestingly more unforced errors in 2 sets compared with the 3 sets played in New York. Qinwen Zheng made 64 unforced errors in the final in Riyadh which is an in credibly high number even for 3 sets. Remember you can win a set by winning the right sequence of 24 points. So in theory two sets can be won in less than 50 points. 64 errors is quite simply not just undoing any good work you do in a match. It is literally losing the match! Coco did not play her best. She lost to Krejcikova who made 29 unforced errors in her group game. Her error count was fairly consistent either side of the 40 number. This is not great. It is just a case of her opponents when it mattered being a lot worse! 

Nevertheless it is a big W at a big event. As the blog released tomorrow will evidence, the WTA finals is not the same as a grand slam. If anything it represents a very well paid competitive exhibition style event. Let's hope 2025 sees Qinwen, Coco and Aryna play at their best more often and ideally at the same time :) 

 Semi final day and DTM expects the real Aryna to show up and beat a vulnerable Coco Gauff. The other semi final is very difficult to call but Qinwen Zheng has had an extra day off and I suspect this will make the difference.  Zheng to win in possibly 3 sets although both matches may be done in straight sets. I believe a new rivalry is forming between the world #1 and China's #1. The final will be another chance to see it:) 

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Aryna Sabalenka to beat Coco Gauff

Qinwen Zheng to beat Barbora Krejcikova

As yesterday demonstrated the round robin format sometimes throws up a set of matches which are fairly meaningless and therefore the outcome is more to do with an exhibition style game than it really matters outcome. Aryna Sabalenka seemed to have a ;less committed day in losing to Rybakina. I doubt this match would have had the same outcome if the group positions were up for grabs? But we will never know and Sabalenka still progresses as group winner and Rybakina still goes home. Today Pegula has retired injured so Kasatkina steps in. Iga Swiatek will be too good on this surface for Daria so that just leaves Coco Gauff to try and ensure her group win by beating Barbora Krejcikova. She will indeed win to complete a semi final line up that DTM recommended at the start. It was not a surprising outcome and not difficult to predict. The WTA need to look at this event because Paolini was clearly shattered playing both doubles and singles at the same event. This made her last match v Zheng uncompetitive. 

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No investment until the semi finals now:) 

Today will see the second semi finalist confirmed as DTM fully expects Coco Gauff to defeat Iga Swiatek. Based on everything we saw from their first matches and recent form prior to this event, Coco is the stand out option on an indoor surface which is playing fast. Her serve is now a weapon again and it is hard to see a rusty Swiatek being able to dominate from the back of the court. In the other semi final Barbora Krejcikova showed enough form onSunday to convince DTM she is the sensible option against a Jessica Pegula who looked like she is already on holiday.  Regardless of today's match ups the tournament victory continues to look like a straight shoot out between Sabalenka and Gauff :) 

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Barbora Krejcikova to beat Jessica Pegula

Coco Gauff to beat Iga Swiatek

With one match now completed across both groups the status of each player’s well being is clear. Elena Rybakina is clearly not 100% match fit.  Her appearance this week is not because she believes she can win. DTM expects her to lose all her matches but wishes her a speedy recovery ready for next season.  Aryna Sabalenka has no concerns currently and will continue on her way to the title with another comfortable victory over the Italian :)

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Aryna Sabalenka  to beat Jasmine Paolini 

2 sets to 0

Qinwen Zheng to beat Elena Rybakina

The second day sees the other group play out the first of 3 round robin matches. Iga should dust off her rustiness by beating an underplayed Krejcikova.

Then in a friend’s clash DTM expects a 3 setter where Coco comes out on top but allowing her mate to still have every chance to make the semis :) 

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Iga Swiatek to beat Barbara Krejcikova 

2 sets to 0

Coco Gauff to beat Jessica Pegula

2 sets to 1

What an opening match to kick off the WTA finals!

Expect no words to be shared between these two players but expect the same result. Aryna Sabalenka will not want to give an inch to Zheng and DTM expects another win for the world #1:)

Elena Rybakina - welcome back to court :) LEt's hope her injuries and illness are behind her and she is able to sustain her levels for the duration of the event. To provide any evidence she is back she should surely take care of Paolini who is on her worst surface which is a shame given her wonderful season. 

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Aryna Sabalenka  to beat Qinwen Zheng 

2 sets to 0

Elena Rybakina to beat Jasmine Paolini

As DTM highlighted in his recent blog, Aryna Sabalenka stands out as the clear favourite to win this year. Her form is impressive, the surface and conditions will suit her and she is confident and fresh from some excellent results in Asia. 

None of her rivals have the same credentials at this stage of 2024. Only Coco Gauff, Qinwen Zheng and Jessica Pegula come into the event with any recent form of note. But sadly for them Aryna seemingly has their number although Gauff has pushed her closest in recent weeks. If Aryna did suffer an injury or illness then DTM expects Coco to take advantage. Her confidence has returned and she has the indoor surface to help her power game sustain accuracy and precision. This will hopefully keep her errors down to a manageable level.

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Aryna Sabalenka v Coco Gauff final

Aryna to win the WTA finals 

The eight players have been split across two groups of 4. Each player plays 3 round robin matches to determine the top two players from each group. These players will then qualify for the semi finals with the group winners playing the group runners up. The final on Sunday 9th November will bring the curtain down on another very full and exciting WTA season. 

Aryna Sabalenka

Elena Rybakina

Qinwen Zheng

Jasmine Paolini

Based on the two players who have the best recent form it is hard to not see Aryna and Qinwen dominating this group. Rybakina in theory could upset either of these two players but until she takes to the court she is living on past reputation rather than form from 2024? Jasmine Paolini is just enjoying the ride and is unlikely to win a match given this is an indoor court.

Iga Swiatek

Coco Gauff

Jessica Pegula

Barbora Krejcikova

Coco Gauff is the most likely to win this group. One because of the indoor court and two because of her recent form. Iga like Elena comes in to the event cold, although fresh and ready. On indoor courts it is unlikely that she will dominate her opponents so really it is a chance to see where her game is at after a break. I suspect she might get through this group but equally I would not be surprised if Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff both beat her? Barbora like Jasmine is enjoying her pay day and given her very limited tennis form is lucky to be playing here. Having said that rules are rules and winning one event at SW19 is a good reason to be invited :)  

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Aryna Sabalenka & Qinwen Zheng to qualify

Coco Gauff and Iga Świątek to qualify