WTA 500 Charleston March 31st to April 6th

There are a few intriguing match ups today where a case can be made for the outsider of two. By committing to a close outcome you can profit from backing a 3 set match and not worrying about who actually wins.

Varvara Gracheva îs the type of player to do well on clay and is in decent form. Elise Mertens is also in good form but does tend to struggle against lower ranked players like Gracheva on a slow surface.  These two have played a 3 set match before and DTM expects it might be more of the same later  tonight. Ashlyn Krueger v Katie Volynets also has the potential of a 3 set battle which would be a repeat of earlier this season. Kenin is playing well enough to certainly push Bencic and this could also go the distance :) 

Finally if Maria Sakkari is to return to the top 20 of the game then today's match up and subsequent draw at this event has to be a serious opportunity that she has to take? Qinwen Zheng is a difficult opponent but she does have a 2-1 H2H record over the Chinese player. She has done well in Charleston and if she did win today the boost it would give her could propel her to going deep in this event :) Her section of the draw would then open up in the top half:) DTM therefore sees value in Sakkari winning today and then reaching the final :) Good each way value assuming she turns a psychological corner today :) 

DTM recommends

V.Gracheva v E.Mertens to be a 3 set match

S.Kenin v B.Bencic to be a 3 set match

A.Krueger v K.Volynets to be a 3 set match

All three matches to go the distance in a Trixie

M.Sakkari to beat Q.Zheng

M.Sakkari each way for Charleston @ 50/1

One of the most fascinating and rather curious tennis stories of the past few seasons was the form of Shuai Zhang. Once a regular seed inside the top 32 of the world, she went on a miserable run of form losing over 20 consecutive matches in 2024. Fortunately her form back in China last autumn saw a turn around of sorts as she won a string of matches in Beijing. Today she plays Bronzetti for the second time this season having thrashed her in Dubai. The surface may be different but Zhang more than anyone has struggled with the mental side of the game. She is capable of beating many players inside the top 100. This season she has already beaten Kessler for a second time and DTM believes a second win against Bronzetti on fast clay is a possibility. At the generous odds of 11/5 its worth an interest, hoping it's a good day for Zhang :) 

Also today Anna Blinkova takes on Ann Li. Blinkova has a 3-0 H2H record and has also beaten Li on the slow conditions of Indian Wells 2 years ago. Li has lost her last 4 matches so the signs all point to a Russian victory :) 

DTM recommends

S.Zhang to beat L.Bronzetti

A.Blinkova to beat A.Li

Anhelina Kalinina has had a difficult period in terms of results. However her pedigree on clay in particular and her recent career is far superior to McNally. Based on McNally's match against Tomova recently where she lost on a fast surface in Miami, DTM believe Kalinina will prove too solid. Time for a win for the Ukrainian this week:)

Polina Kudermetova is a very talented player who on her day can beat players much higher in the rankings, as she showed in Australia in January. Begu is over priced in this match and DTM believes on a faster type of clay Begu could struggle with Kudermetova's power. This is the type of match where either result is possible but if this game was played with a mentally focused Kudermetova then she will win more times than not. At the prices you have to go with the Russian. 

Another day for the K's to make progress:)

DTM recommends

A.Kalinina to beat C.McNally

P.Kudermetova to beat I.Begu

Last year Danielle Collins went back to back, winning in Charleston after also claiming the biggest title of her career in Miami. She is #7 seed and has been drawn in a quarter with both Pegula amongst others! DTM will discuss the draw below on Sunday. Jessica Pegula is #1 seed with Madison Keys at the other end of the draw as the #2 seed. 

The draw was turned literally on its head last night as Belinda Bencic was moved up into a seeded position and now sits in the bottom quarter of the draw with Kasatkina and Keys! This means that DTM has updated his view, simply because only one of Kasatkina or Bencic can come through the bottom half assuming they negotiate Madison Keys:)  

In the 3rd quarter Veronika Kudermetova has a shot at causing a surprise or two. The 2021 winner has form in patches to suggest she might have a good week here :) DTM has found a way of backing Kudermetova to win her section of the draw and hopefully reach the semi finals. Anisimova is not a secure seed to come through that section and Navarro has mixed form this season so far?

DTM recommends 

Belinda Bencic each way @ 11/1

V.Kudermetova to win quarter 3 and reach the semi finals @ 9/1

Harriet Dart is #1 seed for qualifying in Charleston which starts on Saturday just as Miami comes to an end. It is good to see Shuai Zhang trying to qualify as well this week. Charleston is played on green clay which is a faster surface than the European clay but a good way for the players to transition from hard courts. The clay season is going to be the focal point of the WTA  for the next two months so all the players have to embrace it as best they can.